The morning sun rises over my fields as I contemplate another season of uncertainty. Four generations of my family have cultivated these acres, weathering storms both literal and figurative. But the current trade conflict with China presents challenges of exceptional magnitude. Soybean prices have tumbled to four-year lows, creating a financial quagmire for producers across America’s heartland.
I supported President Trump in both elections. His promises resonated with my vision for America – stronger borders, less regulation, protection for American industries. Yet the implementation of his trade policies has brought swift decline to our agricultural communities. The Department of Agriculture forecasts losses approaching $100 per acre for soybean farmers this year. That’s not sustainable for operations like mine.
The numbers don’t lie. They rarely do. China purchased $12.8 billion of American soybeans last year, representing a 22% increase over the past decade. Now, with new tariffs in place, Chinese processors face doubled costs when buying from us. Unsurprisingly, they’re shifting purchases toward Brazilian suppliers, who are already the globe’s premier soybean exporters.
The Ripple Effects
This trade dispute extends beyond mere crop sales. Jacquie Holland, economist with the American Soybean Association, notes this situation appears more dire than the 2018 trade tensions. “Farmers are going to feel the pain of this at so many points on the supply chain, not just from the prices that they receive,” she explains. The conflict with Canada has disrupted potash supplies, a crucial aspect of soybean production.
Last week, I spoke with neighboring farmers after a community meeting. Anxiety permeates our conversations. Some are considering shifting their planting strategies midseason – a desperate move fraught by risk.
The President suggested American farmers should prepare to sell products within domestic markets instead. This recommendation reveals a fundamental misunderstanding about agricultural economics. Domestic consumption cannot possibly absorb the excess production created by international market closures. We export approximately half our soybean crop, primarily to China. That volume cannot be diverted without catastrophic price consequences.
Searching for Solutions
Industry representatives have asked EPA to increase biodiesel usage requirements, which might stabilize markets somewhat but won’t fully replace the evaporated Chinese demand. Unlike 2018’s trade tensions, no explicit farmer relief program has been announced despite this conflict’s significantly larger scale.
The timing couldn’t be worse for American agriculture. Commodity prices have declined nearly 50% from three years ago. Our financial position in 2025 is considerably more precarious than during previous trade disputes. Many operations carry substantial debt from equipment purchases made during better years.
My cousin from western Illinois called yesterday. His bank is getting nervous about extending additional operating credit. They’ve been partners for twenty years, but numbers are numbers, regardless of relationship longevity.
Brazil’s production is projected to expand next year, while US producers face challenges maintaining export volumes. The industry explores alternative soybean uses including biodiesel and plastics, but developing these markets takes time we simply don’t have.
I stood in my equipment shed this morning, looking at machinery payments that stretch years into the future. Every decision becomes more consequential during times of market instability. Do I repair the combine or hope it survives another season? Should I sell land that’s been in our family for generations?
We farmers understand market fluctuations and weather risks. We accept those as inherent aspects of our profession. But government-induced market disruptions create an entirely different dimension of stress. This isn’t about politics anymore – it’s about survival.
Mr. President, I still believe in many of your policies. Yet this trade war threatens the viability of American agriculture. Every day that passes, Brazil captures more market share. Chinese buying patterns are shifting permanently. The damage accumulates with alarming velocity.
I’m not asking for handouts. I’m requesting rational trade policies that recognize agricultural exports as vital economic engines. We need trade negotiations that protect American interests without sacrificing entire sectors of our economy. For the sake of rural America, find a path toward resolution before irreparable harm reshapes our agricultural landscape forever.
